VDW revises production forecast

Andreas Mühlbauer,

Sharp drop in incoming orders

In the third quarter of this year, incoming orders in the German machine tool industry fell by 29% compared to the same period last year.

Incoming orders in the machine tool industry since 2001. © VDW

Domestic orders fell by 26%. Orders from abroad fell by 30 percent. From January to September, incoming orders fell by 33 percent. Domestic orders were 27 percent down on the previous year. Orders from abroad were down 36 percent.

"The second wave of coronavirus has hit the machine tool industry hard," comments Dr. Wilfried Schäfer, Executive Director of the VDW (German Machine Tool Builders' Association), Frankfurt am Main. "Now that the economic indicators have risen in the third quarter, hopes of a short-term improvement are fading rapidly. Incoming orders in the third quarter remain at the low level of the previous months," says Schäfer.

Partial lockdowns are being imposed in Germany and many other European countries. This is a highly uncertain and difficult environment for machine tool customers' investment considerations and decisions. However, regional and sector-specific developments are differing. Asia, and China in particular, is recovering faster. The situation in Europe remains much more tense.

In terms of customers, the electronics industry is one of the few winners in the current crisis and offers sales opportunities. This also applies to medical technology, ventilation technology and consumer-related sectors such as the food and packaging industry.

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The automotive industry, on the other hand, has also been hit hard by the crisis. It is benefiting from the strong increase in demand in China. However, the structural change to new drive systems is becoming increasingly noticeable and investment budgets are being increasingly shifted. "The change offers opportunities, but also costs considerable machining volumes," explains Schäfer.

Against this backdrop, the VDW has had to revise its production forecast for the current year. "We expect a decline of around 30 percent," says Schäfer. In terms of production volume, this means a loss of 5 billion euros. However, the volume of just under EUR 12 billion will be EUR 2 billion higher than during the 2009/2010 financial crisis. "The industry will only return to the 2019 level in the medium term," concludes Schäfer.

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