640 member companies took part in the VDMA 's 7th flash survey. The result: 60% expect nominal sales increases in 2021. "Those companies that expect only a slight drop or even an increase in sales for 2020 are also more optimistic for 2021," says VDMA Chief Economist Dr. Ralph Wiechers, analyzing the evaluation.

However, there is still a long way to go before the sales level of 2019 is reached again. "There are initial signs of an improvement in numerous leading indicators. But this optimism is expectation-driven and therefore very fragile," warns Wiechers. It should also be noted that more than half of companies are expecting sales to fall by 10 to 30 percent in 2020. The basis for growth in the following year is therefore correspondingly low.

Persistent slump in orders

Most decision-makers in companies continue to rate the current business situation as "poor". The VDMA believes that one of the main reasons for this is the ongoing slump in orders. "On the demand side, there is little reason to sound the all-clear: 45% of companies are reporting a noticeable drop in orders, with a further 34% even reporting a serious drop. This confirms the gloomy picture of recent weeks," says Wiechers. Particularly hard hit are the specialist branches of mechanical engineering with many customers from the automotive industry.

According to the VDMA, however, there is a silver lining - albeit a small one: around a quarter of the companies surveyed believe that demand will ease in the next three months. In mid-June, this figure was just over 20 percent. The proportion of companies that expect the order situation to worsen, on the other hand, has decreased and now stands at just 16% (mid-June: 21%).

Supply chains are relaxing

The situation along the supply chain has also continued to ease. Only a good 10% of companies are now affected by disruptions in the supply chains. There is also a slight easing in other disruptions. "Nevertheless, we must not ignore the fact that travel and residence restrictions remain in place for many countries, as well as health and hygiene requirements, which continue to significantly hamper sales, assembly and, above all, service activities," says Wiechers.

Capacity adjustments are still in full swing: 68% of companies are using short-time working, 62% have imposed a hiring freeze and 17% have initiated a reduction in staff - including parts of the core workforce.