Machinery exports from Germany are being increasingly affected by the coronavirus pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, they fell by 6.6% year-on-year to 41.9 billion euros. While they were only 3.9% and 4.4% down on the previous year in January and February respectively, they fell by 11% in March. "In the first two months of this year, the effects of the coronavirus crisis are unlikely to have been reflected in the export figures, with the exception of exports to China. This changed abruptly in March," says VDMA economic expert Olaf Wortmann.

In the first three months of this year, machinery exports from Germany to the EU-27 were 8.5% below the previous year's level. The export business with countries hit hard by the coronavirus, such as France (down 14.8%), Italy (down 16.1%) and Spain (down 13.9%), was particularly disappointing in this period. Here too, the decline in January and February was still quite moderate. However, in March, German machinery exports to Spain, Italy and France fell by 25 to 33 percent compared to the previous year. Just under 15 percent of all German machinery exports go to these three countries alone.

Small ray of hope Poland
"The decline in exports to EU partner countries could reach double digits in the coming reporting months, as German mechanical engineering companies already recorded a drop of more than 21% in exports to the EU in March," reports Wortmann. However, with growth of more than eight percent in the first quarter of 2020, German machinery exports to Poland are currently bucking the trend. The Eastern European country has thus overtaken Austria, the Netherlands and Italy in the rankings and is now the fourth most important destination for machinery exports from Germany. However, the March result for deliveries to Poland was also down by double digits (minus 14.2 percent).

Export expectations for China and the USA differ
The two most important individual markets for German machinery exporters, the United States and China, were affected to varying degrees by the spread of the coronavirus in the first quarter. From January to March, the United States was even able to slightly increase its high prior-year figure by 0.5%. "The fact that President Trump only declared a national emergency on March 13 certainly plays a role here," analyzes VDMA economic expert Wortmann.

By contrast, business in China fell by 8.9% in the first quarter. However, the previous year's level was only just missed in March with a decline of 1.1%. "For the future, we anticipate an opposing trend in the two largest export markets for mechanical engineering. We are seeing a slight easing trend in machinery exports to China. In contrast, the positive picture in the USA, which was still positive until March, has already clouded over considerably. Our current Corona flash survey also shows that demand from the USA is likely to decline," Wortmann summarizes. as