ifo economic survey
Business climate in the automotive industry rises slightly in May
The German automotive industry appears somewhat less depressed in May than it did a month earlier. According to the ifo Institute, the business climate improved from minus 23.5 to minus 20.8 points*. Companies assess their current situation somewhat more favorably and are no longer quite as pessimistic about the coming months as they were recently.
Nevertheless, the industry is far from confident. "In view of the continuing high level of uncertainty, the mood in the automotive industry remains very depressed," says ifo industry expert Anita Wölfl.
Another value shows just how fragile the situation remains: export expectations. They slipped from 11.7 points* to minus 16.4 points within a month. This is primarily due to trade tensions with the USA. The renewed tariff threats from Washington at the beginning of May are likely to have weighed heavily on companies' expectations.
However, a counter-signal followed shortly afterwards. On May 20, 2026, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the member states agreed to implement the customs agreement with the USA. For many companies in the industry, this should have brought back some planning certainty, at least in the short term.
However, the fundamental problems remain. Despite the agreement, US tariffs of 15 percent on cars and car parts still apply. "However, the US tariffs of 15 percent on cars and their parts, which are still in force, still represent a tangible challenge for the German automotive industry," says Wölfl.
The figures thus paint a picture of an industry oscillating between cautious optimism and persistent uncertainty: The situation is improving somewhat, but the risks remain high.
* seasonally adjusted
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