Resilient supply chains
AI instead of crisis
Companies need to react as quickly as possible to unforeseen events. It is therefore important to make supply chains more resilient in advance. AI-based software solutions are therefore becoming increasingly important for risk management.
The challenges in the supply chain have been increasing for years and supply chains have become more susceptible to disruption, particularly due to geopolitical conflicts, supply bottlenecks, a lack of skilled workers, rising inflation and the effects of climate change. According to a survey conducted by logistics magazine Dispo in 2024, the biggest disruptive factors for companies in their supply chains were price changes (45%), the shortage of skilled workers (34%), cyber threats (31%), shipping challenges due to geopolitical problems (23%), freight bottlenecks (23%) and warehouse bottlenecks (22%). It is therefore no wonder that risk management is becoming increasingly important for companies: 29% of the companies surveyed rated risk management as an important challenge, which is 8% more than in the previous year. "Forecasting risks in supply chain management is essential in order to identify potential disruptions at an early stage and take appropriate countermeasures," emphasizes Dr Jan Mazac, one of the Managing Directors of BISS. The Oldenburg-based company has developed cloud-based software for risk management in global supply chains. Mazac and his team are therefore aware of the pain points that companies have with regard to their supply chains and risk management - and also how they can effectively counteract them with the help of precise risk analyses.
Structured and unstructured data
However, various types of data are required for such risk analyses. With the help of demand patterns, weather data or geopolitical events, for example, predictions can be made about potential supply bottlenecks. "However, this requires large amounts of data from different sources to be brought together," explains Markus Schnüpke, also Managing Director of BISS. This includes, in particular, historical sales and order data, real-time stock information, supplier data - including with regard to their financial stability and delivery reliability - external data such as weather reports, political events or market trends, as well as social media and news to identify sentiment. "By integrating all of this data, a comprehensive assessment of potential risks is possible," says Schnüpke. However, the analysis is very complicated due to the huge, heterogeneous amount of data. Companies often develop their own programs for this and work with complex business intelligence processes - but this requires a lot of conceptual work and correspondingly high costs. When AI-based systems come into play, however, they make forecasting easier, faster and more reliable.
This is because artificial intelligence can analyze data in real time and immediately identify anomalies or deviations from normal patterns. To do this, AI systems such as BISS/CAIGO first generate a robust and expandable database from structured and unstructured information from various sources - such as supplier data, supplier links, catalogs of measures, calculated risks, comments, test reports, certificates, chats or emails. "The AI system creates an intelligent knowledge platform from all the data, which makes it possible to transform complex data volumes into usable information," explains Schnüpke. Such AI systems use machine learning algorithms, recognize statistical patterns and correlations and assess the probability and potential impact of risks. To do this, they use advanced analysis methods such as classic time series models or complex simulation techniques such as Monte Carlo analyses.
Recognize risks at an early stage and take countermeasures
With their smart functions, such solutions create forecast models at the user's request that evaluate potential risks and visualize them clearly with dynamic tables and precise visualizations in dashboards and reports. This makes the forecasts easily accessible and understandable for users. Sudden changes - such as political events, natural disasters or trends - in the news or social media, for example, can indicate upcoming disruptions and transportation delays. AI-based software solutions can also derive forecasts regarding disruptions in the supply chain from sudden increases or decreases in product demand as well as signs of financial difficulties or operational problems at suppliers. "If companies recognize such disruptive factors at an early stage, they can take proactive measures and counteract them," explains Mazac.
It is advantageous if the software itself generates suitable recommendations for action to minimize the identified risks. High-quality solutions are able to do just that: if demand peaks are expected, the software suggests stock adjustments, for example, in order to be able to respond to rising demand with increased stock levels. If it detects problems with a current supplier, it will suggest a change of supplier. If disruptions are to be expected on a transport route, adjusting the transport route is a sensible measure to avoid potential delays. With the help of early risk detection in real time and the suggested countermeasures, companies can react before serious disruptions occur. As the AI automatically assesses the risks, companies also save valuable capacity and can focus their resources on the most critical areas. "AI-supported software of this kind provides companies with a powerful tool for strategic decision-making and for optimizing their global supply chains," says Schnüpke.
The prerequisite for such detailed and reliable forecasts and appropriate recommendations for action is a comprehensive, coherent database. "An AI is not a crystal ball," says Mazac, "it cannot reproduce anything that it has not learned." All forecasts are therefore based on existing data - the more comprehensive the database, the more accurate the predictions can be. It is also important that data is continuously fed in and updated so that the AI can learn and improve its accuracy.
Resilient thanks to fast response
Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on global supply chains. The increasing complexity and susceptibility to disruption of supply chains - caused by geopolitical conflicts, skills shortages, inflation and climate change - makes efficient risk management essential. AI-supported systems offer a decisive advantage here: they analyze large volumes of data in real time, identify potential risks at an early stage and suggest proactive measures. Companies that rely on such technologies can make their supply chains more resilient and react more quickly to crises.











