Machinery exports suffer from various factors

According to official statistics, this results in a nominal decline in exports of 5.2% to 150.2 billion euros over the first nine months of 2024. Adjusted for prices, exports of machinery and equipment fell by 7.3%.

"The current decline in exports is the result of an accumulation of overwhelming factors. Weak global demand, geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts are clashing with doubts about Germany's competitiveness as a business location. Maintaining and strengthening our technological leadership requires investment, innovation and sustainable technologies. This combined with improved framework conditions, stronger international cooperation and stable supply chains," warns VDMA Chief Economist Dr. Ralph Wiechers.

Third quarter particularly weak in Europe and America

Exports to the countries of the European Union fell by 11.9% in nominal terms in the third quarter compared to the same period of the previous year, further dragging down the already weak result in the first half of the year. This results in an average decline of 9.2% for the first nine months. The third quarter also led to significantly more negative cumulative results in Other Europe and North and Latin America. In particular, industry exports to the USA fell significantly by 4.2% in the third quarter, meaning that the slight increase in the first half of the year turned into an average minus of 1.0% after just three more months. "Interest rates, which remained high until September, and the economic uncertainty in the USA have further dampened companies' already declining willingness to invest," analyzes Wiechers.

Middle East grows

In contrast, machinery exports from Germany to all Asian regions fell less sharply in the third quarter of 2024. In Southeast Asia and Central and South Asia in particular, the decline over the first nine months appears to have at least slowed somewhat. Here, trade with India in particular continued to grow solidly in the third quarter, consolidating the previous half-year result of plus 5% over the first nine months. Even exports to China were less negative than in the first half of the year, falling by 3.7% in the months from July to September. Here, a cumulative decline of 4.7% was recorded for the first three quarters.

Machinery exports to the Near and Middle East, on the other hand, continued to grow strongly in the third quarter (15.3%) and, with a double-digit increase for the year to date, are increasingly standing out from the crowd. "The strong growth in machinery exports to the Near and Middle East is primarily due to extensive investment in infrastructure projects and the modernization of industry. Many countries are pushing ahead with their economic diversification in order to move away from their dependence on oil and gas exports. However, this is not enough, as the region only accounts for 3% of total German machinery exports," analyzes the VDMA chief economist.