According to the latest forecast by the VDMA trade association, industry sales in the robotics and automation sector are expected to fall by 20% to 14.5 billion euros in 2025. The main reason for this is the noticeable reluctance to invest as a result of geopolitical uncertainties and increasing international competitive pressure.

Robotics and automation from Germany (Robotics, Machine Vision, Automated Solutions) © VDMA Robotics + Automation

"The industry's weak sales announced at the start of the year have been confirmed in our current forecast for 2025," explained Dr. Dietmar Ley, Chairman of VDMA Robotics + Automation and CEO of Basler AG. "The growth prospects are currently gloomy in all sub-sectors until the end of the year."

Different developments in sub-sectors

There are clear differences within the industry: Machine vision is stagnating with a forecast turnover of 3.1 billion euros. The forecast for turnover in robotics has once again deteriorated slightly from -3% to -5%. Automated solutions have been hit particularly hard, with turnover expected to fall by -15% to 7.7 billion euros according to the VDMA.

Results 2024 and outlook 2025 Automated Solutions © VDMA Robotics + Automation

According to Ley, a delayed reaction to economic cycles can be observed in general automation solutions in particular: "Once the order pipeline is empty, it takes a long time for it to fill up again." He emphasizes: "2025 will not be an exuberant financial year - and that also has implications for 2026."

Reasons: Tariffs, uncertainty, international competition

According to the association, a key cause of the weakness is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding international trade conditions, such as fluctuating tariffs. "If the customer knew whether the customs duty would be completely gone tomorrow or whether it would be twice as high - this is currently blocking many investment decisions," said Ley. According to the VDMA, this uncertainty is preventing reliable planning, especially in the export business.

Results 2024 and outlook 2025 Machine Vision © VDMA Robotics + Automation

Added to this is the increasing competition from Asia. Competition from China in particular is causing problems for German industry, continued Ley. Asian manufacturers are acting aggressively, are more willing to take risks and are investing more aggressively in innovations. European industry, on the other hand, is often in "defensive mode".

Strategy against the downward trend

The VDMA trade association sees a need for political and economic action. As part of the "VDMA Action Plan Robotics for Europe", the association is calling for more venture capital for start-ups and a clearly defined roadmap to strengthen competitiveness, among other things.

Ley emphasized the need for strategic decisions in the industry: "I have to ask myself the question: Am I willing to take enough risk to invest in new technologies early enough - even if it is not yet clear whether they will be successful?" Diversification beyond the traditional automotive industry is also important.

The hope of automatica 2025

Results 2024 and outlook 2025 Robotics © VDMA Robotics + Automation

The industry is now hoping that the robotics and automation trade fair automatica, which will take place in Munich from June 24 to 27, 2025, will provide impetus. New automation solutions are to be presented there, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and in the field of artificial intelligence. "This is a key event. We now need more confidence, more desire to score goals - not just to avoid conceding goals," says Ley.

On June 23, a political exchange on the future of European robotics will also take place at the Polish Embassy in Berlin as part of the Polish EU Council Presidency.

Despite the tense market situation, the industry is focusing on a turnaround - with political support, targeted investments and innovative solutions. However, it is also clear that the path back to growth will not be a sure-fire success.